Win Rate
Definition
Win Rate is the share of trades closed in profit out of the total. It says nothing about profitability on its own: it is always read together with the payout, because when the payout is below 100% the break-even win rate sits above 50%.
How win rate is calculated
The formula is simple: divide the number of winning trades by the total and multiply by 100%. For example, 57 wins out of 100 trades is a 57% win rate. The longer the sample, the more honest the figure: over 10 trades it swings on chance, over 200–300 it reflects the real quality of the approach.
But the share alone says nothing about profit. The payout decides everything: in binary options a win brings less than a loss takes, so the bar for breaking even sits above 50%.
Break-even win rate
The minimum win rate that keeps the account flat follows from the payout: 1 ÷ (1 + payout). The lower the payout, the higher the bar:
| Payout | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 70% | 58.8% |
| 80% | 55.6% |
| 85% | 54.1% |
| 90% | 52.6% |
| 95% | 51.3% |
Below this bar you lose money even with more wins than losses. That is the key idea: "I win more often than I lose" and "I make money" are not the same thing.
Example
Take a 55% win rate at an 80% payout. Over 100 trades that is 55 wins and 45 losses: 55 × 0.80 = +44, 45 × 1 = −45, for a total of −1. Despite the edge in wins — a slight loss, because 55% is below the 55.6% break-even. Lift the win rate to 57% and the same 100 trades return +2.6. A two-point difference flips the approach from loss to profit: that is why win rate is tracked to the decimal, not by eye.
Win Rate in the terminal
In BinoView Supercharts the win rate shows in the statistics panel: the terminal counts the share of winning trades over the chosen period, and bots report it in the series summary. This lets you check the real win rate against the one you planned into your sizing (for example, into Masaniello): if it comes out below the planned figure, the sizes need revisiting.
How it differs from expected value
Win rate and expected value (EV) are often confused. Win rate answers "how often am I in profit"; EV answers "how much does one trade return on average, given the payout". A high win rate at a low payout can still be negative EV, and vice versa. Win rate is an input to the calculation, EV is the strategy's final verdict: it is EV, not the bare share of wins, that you want to keep positive.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as a good win rate?
One that stays steadily above break-even for your payout. At an 80% payout that means above 56%; at 90%, above 53%. A 'good' win rate without a payout attached does not exist: 60% at a 70% payout and 60% at a 90% payout are a loss and a profit respectively.
Why isn't a 50% win rate enough?
Because the payout is below 100%. A win brings, say, 0.80 of the stake, while a loss takes the whole stake. With equal wins and losses this asymmetry produces a loss: 50 wins at 0.80 do not cover 50 losses at 1.
Can you profit with a win rate below 55%?
Only if the payout allows it. At a 90% payout break-even is near 53%, so 54% is already in profit. But at an 80% payout the same 54% is a loss. First look at the asset's payout, then decide what win rate you need.