Breakeven win rate calculator
A binary options calculator: shows what share of trades has to close in profit just to break even at a given payout. Computes the expectancy of a single trade and the result over a series.
Breakeven win rate
55.6%
Minimum at a 80% payout
Your margin
+4.4%
Strategy is profitable
Expectancy per trade
+$0.80
Average result of a single trade
Result over 100 trades
+$80.00
Return on turnover: +8.0%
At this payout you must close at least 55.6% of trades in profit — that is 56 out of 100. Anything below drains the account even with perfect discipline.
Breakeven win rate by payout
| Payout | Wins needed | Out of 10 trades |
|---|---|---|
| 60% | 62.5% | 7 wins |
| 65% | 60.6% | 7 wins |
| 70% | 58.8% | 6 wins |
| 75% | 57.1% | 6 wins |
| 80% | 55.6% | 6 wins |
| 85% | 54.1% | 6 wins |
| 90% | 52.6% | 6 wins |
| 92% | 52.1% | 6 wins |
The payout is set by the asset and market conditions and does not depend on expiration time. The threshold assumes equal trade amounts — with varying amounts, go by expectancy.
Why half your trades in profit is not enough
In binary options a win and a loss are not symmetrical. A winning trade returns only the payout — at 80% that is $0.80 per dollar staked. A losing one takes the full dollar. So fifty-fifty is not break even, it is a loss.
The breakeven threshold follows from that asymmetry:
Threshold = 1 / (1 + payout)
At an 80% payout that gives 1 / 1.80 = 55.6%. Out of every ten trades at least six have to close in profit — five will not do.
How to read the results
- Breakeven threshold — the floor below which the account drains even under perfect discipline.
- Your margin — the gap in percentage points between your win rate and the threshold. A negative margin means the approach loses money, however good the last session felt.
- Expectancy per trade — the average result of one trade in money. This is the headline number: it already accounts for both the payout and your own statistics.
- Result over a series — the same expectancy multiplied by the number of trades. It shows what a small edge adds up to over distance.
The threshold at different payouts
| Payout | Wins needed | Out of 10 trades |
|---|---|---|
| 60% | 62.5% | 7 |
| 70% | 58.8% | 6 |
| 80% | 55.6% | 6 |
| 90% | 52.6% | 6 |
The lower the payout, the more precision your entries need. Between an asset paying 60% and one paying 90% there are almost ten percentage points of threshold — a case where the choice of asset moves the result more than the choice of indicator.
Common mistakes
- Estimating the win rate from memory. Memory is selective, and losses fade faster. Take the figure from your trade history, not from impressions.
- Mixing assets with different payouts. Each asset carries its own threshold, so an account-wide average can mask a losing segment.
- Ignoring uneven stakes. The threshold assumes equal amounts. If your sizes vary, go by expected value instead of the share of wins.
FAQ
What is a breakeven win rate?
It is the share of winning trades at which wins exactly cover losses and the account stays where it is. Anything above that threshold produces profit, anything below produces loss — even when the number of wins looks reassuring.
Why does an 80% payout need 55.6%, not half the trades?
Because a win and a loss are not symmetrical: a winning trade adds only the payout ($0.80 per dollar staked), while a losing one takes the whole dollar. To even that out, wins must exceed half — precisely 1 / (1 + 0.80), or 55.6%.
Does the payout depend on expiration time?
No. The payout is set by the asset and current market conditions, not by the length of the trade. So the comparison worth making is not “one-minute versus five-minute trades” but specific assets and their current payout percentage.
What win rate counts as good?
One that stays above your breakeven threshold with room to spare. At an 80% payout the threshold is 55.6%, so 58–62% over a long run already produces a durable plus. Figures above 70% shown on a short series are usually explained by randomness rather than by the quality of the approach.