Martingale calculator
Computes the size of every step in a series, the amount it requires and the chance of losing that amount in full. Shows what the doubling method actually costs and why the required amount grows faster than the profit.
Needed for the series
$232.74
To survive all 7 steps
Last trade
$129.75
×129.7 the base amount
Series profit
+$0.80
What the whole series amount is risked for
Chance of losing it all
0.37%
On average once every 268 series
The series risks $232.74 for a profit of $0.80. Risk to profit — 291 to 1. That is the price of the method: many small wins and one loss that takes it all.
How the invested amount grows
Series steps
| Step | Trade amount | Invested so far | Profit if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1.00 | $1.00 | +$0.80 |
| 2 | $2.25 | $3.25 | +$0.80 |
| 3 | $5.06 | $8.31 | +$0.80 |
| 4 | $11.39 | $19.70 | +$0.80 |
| 5 | $25.63 | $45.33 | +$0.80 |
| 6 | $57.67 | $103.00 | +$0.80 |
| 7 | $129.75 | $232.74 | +$0.80 |
The calculator shows the arithmetic of the method, not a recommendation to use it. Martingale does not raise your win rate — it only shifts the risk onto a rare but devastating run of losses.
What the calculator computes
Martingale is a method where the size of the next trade grows after a loss, so that a single win recovers what was lost and adds the target profit. The calculator lays the series out step by step and shows three things: the size of each step, the accumulated risk and the amount the series must have in full.
The step size can be computed two ways.
By payout. The exact calculation: the amount covers all prior losses plus the target profit. The step formula is (accumulated loss + target) / payout. This method always returns exactly the planned profit, whichever step the win lands on.
Multiplier. The classic approach: every next amount is multiplied by a fixed factor — ×2, ×2.2 and so on. Simpler to execute, but it needs the right factor, otherwise the recovery stops working.
Why ×2 does not suit binary options
The ×2 multiplier inherited from roulette rests on a win returning the full stake. In binary options a win returns only the payout — $0.80 per dollar at 80%. That makes the minimum working multiplier different:
Multiplier ≥ 1 + 1 / payout
| Payout | Minimum multiplier |
|---|---|
| 70% | 2.43 |
| 80% | 2.25 |
| 90% | 2.11 |
Switch the calculator to Multiplier mode and set 2 at an 80% payout — by the fourth or fifth step the "Profit if it wins" column turns negative. That means the series no longer pays for itself: even a winning step leaves the account down.
The price of the method
A $1 base, an 80% payout, seven steps. The series needs about $233, the target profit of the series is $0.80. Risk to profit is roughly 291 to 1.
That is the headline conclusion: martingale manufactures a long stretch of small wins, paid for by a single complete run of the series. And such a run is not exotic — at a 55% win rate, seven losses in a row turn up about once every 268 series.
How martingale differs from Masaniello
Both methods manage the trade size, but they treat risk differently. Martingale reacts only to losses and grows the amount with no built-in ceiling — the worst-case loss is not known in advance. Masaniello plans the whole series up front: the amount is fixed, known before the start and serves as the boundary of the loss.
Judged on a single criterion — "do I know in advance how much I lose in the worst case" — Masaniello answers yes, and martingale answers no, not until you set the limit by hand.
FAQ
What multiplier does an 80% payout need?
At least 2.25. The general rule is multiplier ≥ 1 + 1 / payout. At an 80% payout that is 1 + 1 / 0.80 = 2.25, at 90% it is 2.11. The familiar ×2 sits below that floor, which is why on later steps a win no longer covers the accumulated losses.
How many steps should a series plan for?
As many as the deposit can carry, not as many as you would like. Every step multiplies the required amount by about 2.25 at an 80% payout: seven steps from a $1 base need roughly $233. Series length is not an aggressiveness setting — it is a direct price in money.
Why does the required amount grow so fast?
Because each next amount has to cover every previous loss plus the target profit. The growth is not linear but exponential: the step size and the accumulated risk are multiplied by the same factor, so the required amount grows about 2.25 times with every step and quickly runs past the deposit.
Does martingale help over the long run?
No. Martingale changes neither the payout nor your win rate — that is, none of the parameters the result depends on. It only redistributes the outcome over time: many small wins and one rare loss that takes the whole accumulated result.