Masaniello calculator
Computes the size of every trade in a Masaniello series, the target profit and the chance of reaching it at your win rate. The maximum loss equals the amount for the series and is known before the start.
Profit if it works
+$92.73
The series amount becomes $192.73
Chance of hitting it
63.3%
Getting 6 wins out of 10
Average per series
+$22.02
Out of 100 series: 63 at +$92.73 and 37 at −$100.00
Maximum loss
$100.00
Equals the amount for the series — the method cannot lose more
Your win rate 60% is above the breakeven threshold 55.6%, so the series expectancy is positive. The method is not what earns it: expectancy would be positive at any target, and Masaniello merely distributes the sizes and makes the worst-case loss known up front.
Next trade size
$27.86
6 more wins needed out of 10 trades
The calculation assumes every trade in the series carries the same payout. The chance of hitting the target is computed for independent trades at the stated win rate — real statistics can differ, especially over a short series.
What the calculator computes
Masaniello is a money-management method that plans the whole series in advance. You set the amount for the series, the number of trades and how many of them have to close in profit, and the method computes the size of each trade so that reaching the goal delivers the planned profit.
The key difference from chase methods: each size is picked so that both a win and a loss lead to the same goal. Two consequences follow, and the calculator shows both right in the interface.
The outcome does not depend on the order of results. Click the series through in different ways — all the losses first and the wins after, or mixed. As long as the required number of wins is collected, the final figure is identical to the cent.
The maximum loss is known before the start and equals the amount for the series. Not "about that much" but exactly that: the amount is spent in full at the moment the series becomes impossible to complete.
How to read the results
- Target amount — where the series lands once the required wins are in. The harder the goal, the larger the profit.
- Chance of reaching the goal — the probability of collecting the set number of wins at your win rate. This is the figure that sobers you up: a goal of "9 wins out of 10" pays handsomely but comes up in single-digit percentages of cases.
- Series expectancy — the goal weighted by its chance, against losing that amount in full. It is the only number that tells you whether the series is worth running.
- Maximum loss — the whole series amount. Always.
A worked example
Amount for the series $100, a series of 10 trades, goal — 6 wins, payout 80%.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Target amount | $192.73 |
| Series profit | +$92.73 |
| First trade | $27.86 |
| Maximum loss | $100 |
| Chance at a 60% win rate | 63.3% |
| Series expectancy | +$22.02 |
The same calculation at a 50% win rate gives a chance of 37.7% and an expectancy of −$27.35. The series parameters did not change — only the quality of the entries did.
How it differs from martingale
Both methods manage the trade size, but they treat the unknown differently. Martingale reacts only to losses and grows the size with no ceiling: how much you lose in the worst case is not known in advance. Masaniello plans the entire series before the start, and the series amount serves as a hard boundary of losses.
One question settles it: before the first trade, do you know how much you lose if things go as badly as possible? With Masaniello the answer is "yes, exactly the series amount". With martingale — "no, not until I set the limit by hand".
FAQ
What do you set before the series starts?
Four parameters: the series amount, its length, the number of wins you need and the asset's payout. The method sizes the trades itself and recomputes them after every result — there is nothing to tune by hand.
Why is the outcome the same in any order of results?
That is how the calculation is built: each size is picked so that both a win and a loss lead to the same goal. So whether the wins you needed came at the start of the series or right at the end, the final figure is identical. It is a verifiable property of the method, not a rough rule of thumb.
Is Masaniello safer than martingale?
It is more controlled. The maximum loss equals the amount for the series and is known before the first trade, whereas in martingale a losing streak inflates the size with no built-in ceiling. But controlled risk is not the absence of risk: if the required share of wins does not come in, the amount is lost in full.
What share of wins should you plan for?
A realistic one, a little above the breakeven threshold for your payout. At an 80% payout the threshold sits near 55.6%, so planning for 75–80% is self-deception — the calculator will honestly show the chance of reaching such a goal falling to 10–17% over ten trades, and to single-digit percentages over a longer series. Closer to the truth is 58–62%.
Can the method turn a losing strategy into a profitable one?
No. The expectancy of a series is positive only when your win rate is above the breakeven threshold — and in that case it is positive for any goal. Masaniello distributes an edge you already have and makes the risk predictable, but it does not create the edge itself.