Fibonacci progression calculator
Computes sizes along the 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 sequence: a loss moves one number forward, a win steps two numbers back. Shows the amount required and how long a series survives.
Sequence of sizes
Needed for the whole sequence
$143.00
All 10 terms added up
Last size
$55.00
That is 36.7% of the deposit
Current position
1
Series $0.00
Result over all trades
$0.00
Steps played: 0
Next trade size
$1.00
You are at the start of the sequence
A win steps two positions back, so one win covers roughly two preceding losses. Growth is gentler than martingale but still exponential: the ratio of neighbouring terms approaches 1.618, and over a long series the deposit required is comparable.
How the progression works
Trade sizes follow the Fibonacci numbers in units of the base trade: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55. Each next number is the sum of the two before it.
The rules for moving along the sequence:
- a loss — move to the next number;
- a win — step back two numbers;
- falling below the start means the series is recovered, and everything begins from the base size;
- reaching the end of the sequence forces a reset to the base.
The double step back after a win is not arbitrary: the size of one win roughly covers the two losses before it. That is why a series is dismantled faster than in a ladder progression, where a win takes you down only one rung.
How much gentler than martingale
A comparison of sizes on a $1 base shows where the gentleness ends:
| Number | Fibonacci | Martingale ×2.25 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | $2 | $5.06 |
| 5 | $5 | $25.63 |
| 7 | $13 | $129.75 |
| 10 | $55 | $1,478 |
The gap is enormous, but it is no reason to relax: the ratio of neighbouring Fibonacci numbers tends to 1.618, so the growth is still exponential, just on a smaller base. A full pass through ten numbers requires 143 base trades.
An example series
Base $1, payout 90%. Five losses in a row, then two wins:
| Step | Size | Result | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1 | loss | −$1.00 |
| 2 | $1 | loss | −$2.00 |
| 3 | $2 | loss | −$4.00 |
| 4 | $3 | loss | −$7.00 |
| 5 | $5 | loss | −$12.00 |
| 6 | $8 | win | −$4.80 |
| 7 | $3 | win | −$2.10 |
Two wins returned more than half the drawdown, but the series is not closed yet — getting into profit takes at least one more successful step. That is a progression working normally: it dismantles a drawdown gradually.
Where people go wrong
- Confusing it with Fibonacci levels. The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels answer the question of where to enter. The progression answers the question of how much. All they share is the mathematician's name.
- Walking the sequence with no limit. By the fifteenth number the size is 610 base trades, and no deposit will absorb that.
- Forgetting the double step back. Step down one number after a win and the method turns into an ordinary soft progression, while the arithmetic stops matching the sequence.
FAQ
How does the “loss forward, win two back” rule work?
After a loss you move to the next number of the sequence; after a win you go back two numbers. That step back is not arbitrary: the size of one win roughly covers the two losses before it. Falling below the start of the sequence means the series is recovered and closed.
Is a Fibonacci progression gentler than martingale?
On the early steps, noticeably: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5 against 1, 2.25, 5.06, 11.4, 25.6. But the ratio of neighbouring Fibonacci numbers tends to 1.618, so the growth stays exponential. By the tenth number the size is already 55 times the base, and the full path needs 143 base trades.
How is it different from a ladder progression?
The ladder grows by a fixed multiplier and steps down one rung; Fibonacci grows along the sequence and steps back two. That double step back gets Fibonacci out of a series faster on wins, but it also builds sizes more steeply. The ladder is gentler and more predictable, Fibonacci more aggressive.
Does the Fibonacci sequence carry a mathematical edge?
No. The sequence sets a convenient order of sizes, but it changes neither the payout nor your win rate — that is, not one of the parameters the result over distance depends on. Like any progression, it redistributes the outcome over time.
Is this the same as Fibonacci levels on a chart?
No, they are different things with a common origin. The 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are a technical-analysis tool for finding entries. A Fibonacci progression is a money-management method that sets the trade size. One is about where to enter, the other about how much.